The political calculus behind Swinney’s campaign is crystal clear. With the Scottish Parliament elections just weeks away, the SNP is seeking to frame the debate as a simple choice between an uncaring Westminster and a Scottish Government that is fighting for the interests of ordinary people. It is a classic piece of nationalist political theatre. By demanding action from London that London is almost certain to refuse, the SNP can present itself as the champion of the people, thwarted at every turn by a remote and indifferent UK administration. The fact that the Scottish Government has its own devolved powers over transport and could, in theory, use its own budget to mitigate fuel costs is conveniently ignored. The narrative is what matters.
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The UK Government’s response is likely to be one of weary resistance. The Treasury is facing a gaping hole in the public finances, and every penny of fuel duty is accounted for. Scrapping the planned increase would blow a further hole in the Chancellor’s budget and make the fiscal arithmetic even more challenging. Furthermore, there is a strong environmental case for keeping fuel duty high, as a means of discouraging carbon emissions and encouraging the transition to electric vehicles. But such arguments are unlikely to cut through in the current climate of economic anxiety. John Swinney has set a political trap for Westminster. If the UK Government refuses to act, it will be painted as the villain, indifferent to the suffering of Scottish motorists. If it does act, it will set a precedent that other regions and interest groups will be quick to exploit. It is a no-win situation for Downing Street, and a political masterstroke for the SNP.
